When Uncertainty Becomes a Constant, Risk Management Must Be Too
Canadians have internalized uncertainty as a normal condition. Nine in ten believe uncertainty is no longer temporary, regardless of age, region, or political affiliation.
One quarter describe the world as uncertain, and another quarter as volatile, according to a survey by Abacus Data.
Agricultural producers have long known that stability is never guaranteed. The renegotiation of The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in 2026 only reinforces this sentiment. In fact, Canadian farmers are anticipating higher risks and worsening financial conditions, according to the RealAgristudies Sentiment Index. Of the 570 farmers surveyed, three quarters expect both increased risk and financial deterioration in 2026.
Cautious profit projections
AAFC projects a 3% increase in net cash income in 2026, below the average growth seen between 2020 and 2024. Growth in livestock receipts is expected to stabilize, while crop receipts are projected to increase.
Average net operating income per farm is also expected to rise by 3%, reaching $146,000.
Active risk management to stabilize margins
In this environment, should you lock in margins at levels comparable to 2025? Or attempt to expand them, accepting the risk of losing ground?
These decisions lie at the heart of risk management and involve positioning choices in commodity futures contracts.
The algorithms developed by Agrintel (formerly MMC) support decision-makers in these choices:
- By optimizing positioning based on a logical-mathematical method tested for more than five years;
- By taking into account factors such as historical benchmarks or your budget plan.
The use of algorithms brings discipline and imposes a scientific approach, free from emotion. A large part of the realization of gains comes from these fundamental elements. Michel Mercier
To find out whether Agrintel’s algorithms are a solution suited to your risk management needs, contact us.
One thing is certain, the status quo is rarely the best option.
